Afghanistan’s strategic miscalculations

2026-03-05 - 21:53

THE recent escalated military tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan is not a positive development in the current global and regional strategic environment. Any strategic miscalculation on the part of either party will be lethal for both neighbouring Muslim countries. The Afghan Islamic Emirates needs to learn a lesson from the past and make distinction between the friends and foes. Pakistan and its people, despite their meager resources, always extended a helping hand to Afghanistan and its people. During Russian-invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan was the sole state that helped it and accommodated its leadership and people on its soil for more than four decades. In post 9/11, the American invasion in Afghanistan further posed a challenge to Pakistan and its political and military leadership. Despite such adverse strategic environment Pakistan tried to make efforts for bringing peace and stability in Afghanistan; and after the withdrawal of Allied Forces under America’s auspices, Pakistan was the first country that welcomed Islamic Emirates Afghanistan (IEA). The political and military leadership in Pakistan and the people of Pakistan heralded the change and hoped for normalcy in the decade’s war-torn land and people of Afghanistan. Contrary to this, IEA has failed to learn from the historical strategic blunders and chosen a wrong strategic-route that leads to nothing except destabilizing the society and state of Afghanistan in coming days. The incumbent IEA has following strategic miscalculations. First, IEA has myopic approach by forgetting that Biden’s regime fixed responsibility on Pakistan for Allied Forces’ failure and loss in Afghanistan. Second, Ashraf Ghani-India-Israel-nexus was against IEA. Third, Pakistan strongly deplored Indian-used-of Afghanistan-land against Pakistan. Fourth, IEA was only a myth and not a reality but Pakistan supported it and Afghan people during its war against International Security Assistance Force composed of 26 NATO Members and USA. Could IEA counter such force without moral and logistic support of Pakistan and its people? Fifth, Pakistan also raised question on the infiltration of terrorists in the shape of Tehrek-e-Taliban (Fitna Al-Khawarij) and other terrorist organizations and their active involvement in terrorism and targeting civilians, religious places and government installations. Sixth, after assuming power in Afghanistan, IEA turned a blind eye towards all these facts and started to adhere to the policy of Ashraf Ghani by giving not only safe havens to FAK but also sponsored it against Pakistan, its people and security forces. Rather than condemning the burning alive of the bodies of police personnel, attacks on mosques and the killing of innocent civilians, the IEA denied the existence of such seditious elements on its soil despite the fact that the security agencies and government of Pakistan have provided evidence of their existence. Seventh, there is no paradigmatic shift in IEA’s foreign policy by shaking hands with its foes, viz. India and Israel. Ironically, the IEA forgets the triangle “Axis of Evil” composed of America, Israel and India. The US and its watchdog have turned Middle Eastern countries into rubble and recently targeted Iran and its leadership; then how does the IEA expect blessings from these countries? Now, the IEA’s strategic ties with India (the American watchdog in South Asia), which is a huge recipient of economic and military aid from Israel, are a strategic miscalculation. India cannot be a well-wisher of Muslims, which is reflected in the Hindutva ideology of the BJP against the Muslim community in India. Such liaison with India and Israel is a derogation of the Kalima Tayyiba inscribed on the IEA’s flag. Eighth, the IEA underestimates Pakistan’s military capability and its know-how of every nook and corner of Afghanistan, given its engagement there since 1979. Ninth, it also ignores dormant dissident groups like the Northern Alliance, whose re-emergence in an anarchical situation could plunge Afghanistan back into the 1990s. Tenth, the IEA’s hostile foreign policy and sponsoring of FAK have alienated not only the government of Pakistan but every segment of its society. Eleventh, this policy may also estrange major regional powers, Russia and China, both opposed to the presence of the USA, Israel or their proxies on Afghan soil and contradicts the charter of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which rejects terrorism and militancy. Lastly, the recent attack on Pakistan is another blunder by the IEA. There is still a silver lining. IEA has to revisit its domestic and foreign policy towards Pakistan. First, it needs to announce cease-fire with immediate effect by involving China and Russia. Second, it must throw out the pseudo-arrogant cloak and must rush to Islamabad for negotiation to remove misconception and to arrive at short and long-term foreign policy principles based on mutual national interests and collective security. Third, it must also respect the security apprehensions of Pakistan. Fourth, it must issue a decree to disown FAK and banned its activities. Last, the peaceful co-existence is in the interests of people of both Pakistan and Afghanistan. —The writer is Chairman & Security Expert, Department of Political Science, Islamia College Peshawar. (amir@icp.edu.pk)