Blowing flames of ‘the Taliban rogue state’

2026-03-18 - 21:41

IN its latest findings, the United Nations has charge-sheeted the Taliban regime in Kabul with acts of committing proxy terrorism inside Pakistan, including violations of women’s rights. There can be no denying the fact that the Afghan deep state is posing multifarious challenges to South Asian regional stability. For decades, Afghanistan has been a theatre for proxy war. Needless to say, being an Indian satellite in the region, Kabul has been using the terrorist networks to destabilize Pakistan. Further, the Afghan state is deeply steeped in its internal Afghan divisions, thereby hindering a unified regional approach to stability. Given the complex dynamics of this geopolitical crisis deepened by the Taliban rogue state, there appears a collective global responsibility to prevent this crisis, tattering the political, social and economic fabric of Afghanistan—potentially undermining the South Asian security landscape. Undeniably, for decades, Afghanistan has been a ground for “Great Games” between regional and global powers. The involvement of Afghan factions with external intelligence agencies exacerbates existing rivalries. A Kabul government perceived as too friendly to one neighbor (e.g., India) is often seen as a threat by another (e.g., Pakistan), leading to proxy conflicts and a cycle of instability. The concept of an “Afghan deep-cum-rogue state” is often used to refer to entrenched political factions, tribal networks and intelligence elements whose actions contribute to instability, primarily through covert support for insurgent groups and the pursuit of narrow, factional interests. These actors, whether remnants of past regimes or elements within the current Taliban Administration, challenge South Asian regional stability in several ways. Since the withdrawal of US forces in August 2021, the Taliban regime in Kabul has faced significant challenges in establishing a stable and effective government. Its authority remains fragile due to internal divisions, economic collapse and international isolation. Needless to say, Afghanistan’s fragmented society and weak central governance contribute to persistent instability. The “deep state” is often intertwined with corrupt leadership and warlords, whose focus on self-preservation and power struggles undermines efforts to build a stable, inclusive and functional state. This internal fragility creates a vacuum that terrorist groups and criminal networks (such as those involved in the opium trade) exploit, radiating insecurity outwards. The fragmented Taliban regime is ideologically extremist, pre-occupied in its terrorist trajectories that are controlled by the Zionist-Hindu agenda of destabilizing the South Asian region. This orthodox autocratic structure makes it difficult to establish effective oversight of intelligence and security bodies, allowing covert operations and links with non-state actors to persist without public or political accountability. Analytically, the Taliban deep state syndrome has the following symptoms: First, it shares porous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan (the Durand Line) is a persistent source of tension. Cross-border militancy and violent provocations by elements on the Afghan side exacerbate bilateral relations and create internal security challenges within Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Second, Instability and economic hardship in Afghanistan lead to large-scale movements of refugees to neighboring countries like Pakistan and Iran. This influx strains the resources and social fabric of host nations, potentially leading to social and security issues. Third, Afghanistan has historically been a theatre for proxy competition between regional powers. Each country seeks influence to counter the other, which can exacerbate internal Afghan divisions and hinder unified regional approaches to stability. Fourth, the illicit trade of arms and narcotics from Afghanistan across its borders has negative political and social impacts across Central and South Asia, fueling corruption and instability. Fifth, Afghanistan’s severe economic and humanitarian crises, including extreme poverty and lack of development, risk a total state collapse. And above all, Afghanistan continues to be widely regarded as an abode of militant proxies, which has been a defining feature of its modern history and persists under the current Taliban Administration. The country serves as a base for various domestic and transnational militant groups, while external powers pursue their strategic interests through influence and support of various factions, contributing to ongoing instability. This complex interplay of internal dynamics and external influences has shaped Afghanistan’s security landscape. The TTP has a significant presence in eastern Afghanistan and has escalated attacks against Pakistan since the Afghan Taliban’s return to power in August 2021. The Afghan Taliban has been accused of being unwilling or unable to curb the TTP’s activities. Moreover, the Afghan dilemma is that the Afghans potentially lack political legitimacy as they have no clear mandate to govern the Administration in Kabul. And yet, despite the Taliban assurances in the Doha Agreement not to host terrorist groups, UN reports and US intelligence have confirmed that al-Qaeda maintains a close alliance with the Taliban leadership and operates terrorist training camps and safe havens in the country: The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) is a major internal threat to Pakistan’s internal security. The group has continued to launch deadly attacks, often targeting the Hazara Shi’a minority, Sunni Sufi centers and diplomatic missions, challenging the Taliban’s claims of having restored security. The international community fears that an unstable and chaotic Afghanistan will create a vacuum for more extremist groups to flourish, posing a global security threat. The Taliban’s continued support for the TTP remains a significant source of instability in South Asia. Operation Ghazab lil Haq underscores Pakistan’s efforts to counter cross-border terrorism, as Pakistan defence forces are poised to terminate terrorist safe havens in Afghanistan. In summary, a failed Afghan state would have heavy repercussions for all neighbors, preventing the development of regional trade and energy corridors that could otherwise promote stability and prosperity. Thus, ‘’controlling the current multi-faceted crisis in Afghanistan requires a combined approach of sustained humanitarian aid, pragmatic regional diplomacy and targeted pressure on the Taliban to reverse restrictions on human rights, particularly those affecting women’’. —The writer, based in Pakistan, an independent IR & International Law analyst, also a Peace and Conflict Studies expert, is member of the European Consortium of Political Research, including Washington Foreign Law Society/American Society of International Law. (rizvipeaceresearcher@gmail.com)