Dollar funding stress eases as Middle East conflict de-escalation hopes rise

2026-03-04 - 21:54

A ​gauge of dollar-funding stress eased on Wednesday amid rising hopes that ‌the Middle East conflict may prove shorter lived than initially feared, a day after its sharpest move in six months following U.S. strikes on Iran. The one-year euro cross-currency basis swap rate, which ​measures the cost of swapping euro funding into dollars for one ​year, rose to 11.23 basis points on Wednesday from 10.4 the day before, ⁠showing easing demand for the dollar. The basis swap rate falls when dollar ​demand outstrips supply, and it rises when dollar liquidity becomes more plentiful. The rate ​fell to a low of 9.5 on Tuesday, its lowest in three months. That followed a 2.6 basis point drop over the prior week, the sharpest such move in six months. On Wednesday, the dollar pared recent ​gains after a New York Times report said Iranian intelligence operatives indirectly reached ​out to the CIA a day after the attacks even as U.S. officials remain skeptical ‌that ⁠either the Trump administration or Iran is prepared for a near-term de-escalation. “From what I can see, financial conditions remain loose and price action looks orderly, suggesting that the world’s biggest banks and asset managers are not expecting ​a systemic liquidity crunch ​in the near ⁠term,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto. While the declining rate this week highlighted risk aversion among ​market participants, it moved less than during other market ​shocks, including ⁠after President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement in April. Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone in London, said the movement suggested participants sought safety but the market “was ⁠not ​disorderly or dysfunctional at any stage, nor one ​where liquidity concerns are present.” “I don’t think this should be a huge worry for investors right ​now,” Brown said.