EDTs & future warfare

2026-01-26 - 23:24

EMERGING and disruptive technologies (EDTs) are increasingly influencing all aspects of national power, particularly military power. They are transforming warfare, enabling faster, more flexible and more effective operations, but also introducing new asymmetric threats. States with limited resources and non-state actors can access EDTs, enabling them to challenge more powerful opponents. Therefore, the decision-makers are fostering the development and adoption of EDTs in their military doctrines and weaponry. Emerging technologies are defined as “new scientific breakthroughs and technological tools that, while still under development, hold high potential to redefine future conflict dynamics.”Disruptive technologies are innovations that fundamentally alter the status quo of capabilities and the balances of economic, political and military power. Disruptive technologies in the military domain are enhanced or completely new technologies that bring about a radical change, including a paradigm shift in the concept and conduct of defence affairs, such as replacing existing defence technologies or rendering them obsolete. The important EDTs are big data analytics, artificial intelligence (AI), hypersonic weapons systems, nano-engineering, quantum sensing/transmitting, space technologies, unmanned vehicular systems, energy weapons and biotechnology. These technologies are decisively influencing the conduct of modern multi-domain warfare or operations. They are redefining how military power is generated, projected and employed across multiple domains. They are reshaping war by incremental shifts that blur offensive/defensive lines and complicate attribution and by altering the parameters and rules of engagement. Precisely, these technologies present both risks and opportunities for commanders in warfare. The EDTs have the potential to enhance the effectiveness of non-nuclear weapons as a game-changer in military and strategic affairs. The non-nuclear weapons, such as missile defense, conventional precision-strike weapons, counter-space weapons, remote sensing technologies and cyber weapons, among others, present grave threats like nuclear weapons. Hypersonic missiles, advanced missile defenses, non-kinetic cyberattacks and electromagnetic pulse strikes give an advantage against a better-armed foe. Therefore, the makers of modern strategy are employing EDTs to maximize their offensive and defensive war-fighting potential at land, sea, air, space and cyberspace. In war, information gathering about the adversary and its effective use in operations are among the imperatives for victory. Through modern technologies such as sensors, satellites, cyber networks, logistics systems and social media, unprecedented streams of information can be collected before and during war to anticipate the adversary’s course of action. Notably, nanoscale and quantum technologies are advancing and broadening the frontiers of surveillance, communication and stealth. AI accelerates the OODA (observe–orient–decide–act) loop, enabling big data to be used operationally in meaningful ways for targeting, reconnaissance and cyber defense. It is capable of serving as a decision partner in command and control structures by modeling and predicting an adversary’s behavior and recommending courses of action at speeds exceeding human mind ability. However, there are two built-in disruptive dimensions in AI-expeditious decision-making. The OODA loop could compress decision time to seconds, advancing mission capability while taxing human oversight. Thus, for military leaders, AI poses a challenge in balancing speed with prudence to ensure that human command and control authority remains informed, expeditious and ethically responsible. The scientific solution to deception and infiltration is quantum sensing and transmission, which promise ultra-precise navigation and weapon platform guidance and timing independent of GPS; secure communications resistant to interception; and detection capabilities beyond the limits of current radar or sonar systems. However, the performance of quantum sensors is compromised when they are placed on moving platforms. Vibrations, electromagnetic interference and other environmental disturbances degrade their performance, limiting their operational utility. Today, the unmanned air, land, sea and undersea systems have become central to the conduct of modern warfare. These systems are becoming increasingly attractive for three reasons. First, they are cost asymmetry. A drone costing thousands in currency can neutralize a system worth millions. Second, drones are operational persistence. The drone swarms can saturate defenses, overwhelm radar and operate in environments too hazardous for humans. Third, they can be integrated with other domains. The AI-guided drones, linked via quantum-secure networks and engaging big data analytics, could deliver precision kinetic strikes or non-kinetic payloads in electronic warfare and/or the dispersal of biotechnologically developed agents. The protracted warfare in Ukraine, the Armenia-Azerbaijan wars, India-Pakistan’s four-day skirmishes in May 2025 and the US Predator drone strikes to neutralize terrorists demonstrated the military effectiveness of unmanned aerial (drone) systems. The drones were employed for various purposes in armed conflicts, ranging from intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations to counterforce strikes. In 2020, Azerbaijan used drones to dismantle Armenia’s defenses in Nagorno-Karabakh. Tanks, artillery and air defense systems were destroyed not by fighter jets or missiles, but by drones guided from afar. The new breed of deadly, unpredictable and one-way single-use unmanned aerial weapon systems that fall under the category of loitering munitions, famously known as the “suicide drones” or “kamikaze drones,” is becoming attractive to militaries. Simultaneously, the increasing commercialization of drone technology and the readily cheap availability are causing a permanent threat that drones could be used by terrorist organizations. Despite various challenges, the security analysts have a consensus that command, control and communications ought to be modernized by integrating EDTs to make them more resilient, while humans should always remain in control. They are convinced that AI-driven cyber security systems could automatically detect spoofing or intrusion attempts that might otherwise be difficult. Therefore, to make human control effective, the culture of restraint should be cultivated among decision-makers. To respond to time pressure and algorithmic feeds that shape perceptions, they must be prepared to pause and verify rather than react and to question both what they see and how they see it. In summary, the EDTs’ role in future warfare is irrefutable. Therefore, decision-makers refurbish their military doctrines and arsenals by integrating these technologies. The operators and commanders must be trained to work with AI partners, scientifically educated to interpret quantum-enhanced data and skillfully deploy hypersonic weapons and unmanned vehicular systems in the future warfare. —The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. (jaspal_99@hotmail.com)