Europe: Strategic shift, emerging fault lines

2026-02-19 - 23:23

THE US–Iran conflict is emerging as a test case for Europe. While Mr Trump pushes his agenda for a Gaza Board, no European country is included. This marks a major shift in the EU’s strategic realm, indicating that Europe is gradually finding its moorings independently. A global upheaval appears to be on the anvil. Germany’s economy stands crippled due to the Ukraine war, a condition shared by other European states, with the impact most pronounced in Western Europe. This economic decline is set to affect global trade and create new geopolitical fault lines, prompting the recurring question: where is the United States? Europe continues to press Ukraine to do more, yet European countries are compelled to raise defence budgets despite crumbling economies and a global slowdown, further aggravated by Mr Trump’s tariff doctrine. The USA is no longer a willing partner to foot NATO’s bill. The initial plan of France, Germany and NATO to push Ukraine into war—assuming Russia could not withstand NATO’s combined military strength and US sanctions—has backfired. Expectations that confiscating $300 billion in reserves and cutting Russian oil sales would cripple Moscow and that Western technology would prevail militarily, proved misplaced. Russia avoided political outbursts or dramatic reactions, instead quietly taking decisive steps. European companies’ shares in Russia, worth around $120 billion, were seized and Moscow moved away from the SWIFT system, relying on CIPS and local currency settlements. Today, BRICS accounts for nearly 60 percent of global GDP and about 189 countries, in conjunction with China, have reportedly shifted to CIPS, striking a blow to US dollar supremacy. The cumulative impact has crippled European economies, which now struggle with rising defence spending under US pressure, energy shortages crippling industry and de-dollarisation, while the Ukraine war continues testing the EU’s resolve. Oman talks ended without tangible progress. Meanwhile, the United States is boosting its naval and military presence in the Middle East, raising the likelihood of hostilities beyond Ukraine. The impact on South Asia is visible, as NATO members voice growing security concerns amid Russian advances. Russia now controls over 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, securing access routes to Odessa and effectively landlocking the country. With declining EU financial and military support, President Zelenski’s options are shrinking and delays in decision-making could prove costly. Reports suggest Ukraine has agreed to concede the Donbas region. This geopolitical shift is also creating space for right-wing forces and rising nationalism across Europe. Coupled with the Trump doctrine, which has triggered financial and military tremors, the global order appears to be reverting to a 19th-century-style balance of power, echoing the Napoleonic era and two World Wars, when Europe’s collapse cost millions of lives. Amid this rivalry of elephants, India’s strategic importance to the European Union has grown. The EU–India deal, described by both sides as a “mother of deals,” provides mutual market access, a major success for India, which has a large domestic market and strong industrial base. Rising US tariffs have pushed the EU and India closer, making the first visit by an EU leader to India in eight years strategically significant. India has reportedly agreed to purchase additional Rafale aircraft from France, strengthening bilateral ties, while the French President is also expected to visit. Following early reactions, Mr Trump and Prime Minister Modi held talks, resulting in US tariffs being reduced to 18 percent, while India opened its market at zero tariffs, along with a 25 percent waiver on Russian oil purchases. UK Prime Minister Starmer and Canadian Prime Minister Carney have visited China, signalling a major shift in Canada–US relations after eighty years of close alignment. Canada announced plans to import electric vehicles from China, beginning with 50,000 units, followed by local assembly and manufacturing. Canada and China are also cooperating in aircraft manufacturing. Canada’s strong civil and military aviation base underpins this move. Similarly, Britain and China have entered agreements to promote trade and commerce. These developments have attracted Mr Trump’s ire. Threats to cancel EV agreements drew no response from Prime Minister Carney. Mr Trump also threatened to shut down the Gordie Howe International Bridge linking Michigan and Windsor, Ontario—a $6.8 billion logistics backbone of the North American auto industry. Carney’s response was simple: the bridge will open. Unlike traditional politicians, Carney quietly travelled to Zurich and concluded a three-point agreement covering oil, gas and financial cooperation among EU and G7 partners, excluding the US for the first time in 80 years. The outcome of the Ukraine war remains uncertain. US-brokered talks have so far yielded only prisoner exchanges involving over 300 prisoners of war. Future negotiations may bring progress. However, the loss of Odessa would severely impact Ukraine’s agricultural exports and confirm its landlocked status. Conversely, India urgently requires modern technology to strengthen its industrial and defence base, making closer ties with the EU a strategic necessity. The failure of Operation “Sindoor” has prompted military restructuring. US pressure on India remains multidirectional, including tariffs and tightening immigration policies. Indian firms, particularly in telecom and IT, are shedding jobs to survive. Rising security concerns—from Pakistan and an increasingly assertive Bangladesh—are forcing India to increase defence spending. In this context, the German Chancellor’s visit to India gains importance for technological cooperation. As India reshapes its Cold Start doctrine, Pakistan must re-evaluate and strengthen its national power elements. —The author is a decorated Brigadier (Retd), a veteran of the 1965 and 1971 wars, with over 31 years of active combat experience and more than 32 years in the engineering and automobile sectors. A regular contributor to Pakistan Observer on economic, international and domestic affairs, he is also a TV analyst, author of two books and a member of the Karachi Editors’ Executive Committee, besides serving as president and chairman of several forums. (tariqkhalil21@gmail.com)