From Trade Shock to Civil War: What could happen If US attacks Iran?

2026-01-30 - 16:46

TEHRAN – A US strike on Iran carries major risk of unintentionally escalating into a much larger conflict as both sides are having contrasting versions amid casualties and on other serious matters. The most likely outcome is that the military consolidates power within Iran, with the Revolutionary Guard or other security forces stepping in to maintain control, making this scenario highly probable. Apprently, Iran could retaliate against American forces and allies through missile attacks, drones, or proxy militias, potentially disrupting energy flows and global trade. In worst-case scenario, a complete collapse of the Iranian government could trigger civil war and a humanitarian catastrophe, affecting millions, which, while less likely, would have an extremely severe impact. Shift toward Democracy? Any major attack from US could topple the already weakened Iranian government, potentially opening the door to democracy and reintegration into the global community. If you look back, Iraq and Libya saw dictators overthrown but descended into chaos, while Syria’s 2024 protests, without foreign intervention, produced relatively stable outcomes. Changes in Policy Another possible scenario is that the Iranian government survives US strikes but is forced to moderate its policies. Proponents suggest Iran might reduce support for violent militias, curb nuclear ambitions, and allow protests more freedom. Yet Iran’s 47-year track record of resisting change under pressure makes this outcome highly unlikely. Full Control of Armed Forces Many analysts warn that the most probable outcome is a power vacuum filled by armed forces. Revolutionary Guard officers could dominate, maintaining order while keeping hardline policies intact. Protests have historically failed due to a loyal security apparatus and elite willingness to use brutal force. Strikes Against US Forces, allies Despite being inferior to US army power, Iran could launch missile and drone attacks from hidden locations. US bases in Bahrain and Qatar, along with allies such as Jordan and Israel, could come under fire. The 2019 Aramco attacks provide a stark warning of the reach and intensity of Iranian-backed militias. Global Trade in Limbo Iran could deploy naval mines in the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, through which 20–25% of the world’s oil and gas passes. A repeat of disruptions seen during the 1980–88 Iran-Iraq War could send energy prices skyrocketing and global trade into turmoil. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy could attempt swarm attacks with explosive drones and fast boats. Even a single U.S. warship loss or captured crew would echo past humiliations such as the 2000 USS Cole bombing or the 1987 USS Stark missile strike. Civil War in Iran? In case of government collapse, the country of over 90million will plunge into nationwide chaos. Tensions could erupt among Kurds, Baluchis, and other groups, potentially creating a massive humanitarian and refugee crisis. Neighboring countries would be forced to watch as Iran teeters on the brink of disintegration. President Donald Trump, with massive US forces near Iran, may feel compelled to strike if diplomacy fails. Analysts warn that a single decision could trigger a war with no clear end, creating unpredictable and potentially devastating consequences for the region, and the world. The situation remains tense. While the targets and potential military strategies are known, the global community can only speculate about the human, political, and economic fallout if conflict erupts. New adventurism by Israel & the US against Iran