Iran’s unrest and global risks

2026-01-26 - 00:49

THE people of Iran are up in arms, the streets of all major cities in Iran are now in an upris-ing the likes of which was seen back in 1979 when the protest movement against the rule of Raza Shah Pahlavi was launched. The state agencies have launched a brutal and violent crackdown on the tens of thousands of street protestors and the death of hundreds of demon-strators has shaken Iranian society and the country is now in the grip of a dangerous confron-tation with the United States. Donald Trump has issued many warnings to Tehran of taking action if the killing continues and the Iranian Government has issued counter warnings that all American bases in the region will be attacked in case of any retaliation from America. If war breaks out between the US and Iran, it will have repercussions all over the world. The ripple effect of internal repression and external pressure, particularly by Washington, affects global markets and eventually countries like Pakistan suffer from higher prices and low growth. Iran is the epicentre of the energy world. It is not only a major producer and exporter of oil but it is also very close to the strategic Straits of Hormuz the channel through which most of the oil is shipped to the countries of the world. Any escalation in this part of the world spooks the oil markets and prices start to escalate with a devastating effect on the economies of the poor third world countries and the recent threats by Donald Trump have already sparked fears of an upheaval in the oil markets. For the world economy the consequences of any flare up in Iran are extremely grave because any escalation in oil prices will result in inflation, slowdown in growth and will make mone-tary policy more difficult throughout the world. Developing countries suffer the most and Pakistan is one such country because it imports over 80% of its oil from the Middle Eastern countries. Any increase in the international oil markets directly impacts the import bill result-ing in reduced foreign exchange and pressure on the currency. The increase in oil prices re-sults in increased transportation costs and increase in the cost of electricity and then food prices and the ordinary man suffers tremendously. Pakistan is already facing inflationary pressures and a weak currency. Any severe shock to the political structure in the Middle East will add fuel to the raging fires of economic problems in the country. Energy cost is one potential danger and the labour and remittance factors too will suffer. Hundreds of thousands of Pakistani labourers make their living in Gulf nations, countries whose economies strongly depend on the stability of the re-gion. Remittance flows thus may decrease in case instability in Iran leads to greater regional tension or if sanctions and counter-sanctions affect the economies in the Gulf. In the case of Pakistan it will translate into a strain both on household incomes and foreign exchange re-serves. The turmoil in Iran has a lesson for Pakistan and other developing countries and that is economic hardship combined with political instability may result in instability on a global scale. The protesters in Iran are fueled by not only the political oppression but also the lack of jobs, high inflation rates and scuttled opportunities. These pressures have been exacerbated by sanctions though the failure of governance has increased these strains. As these lines are be-ing written the people of Iran are living in danger and uncertainty. The danger is from forces outside and from those who have opposed the policies and politics of the Mullahs ruling Iran since 1979 and the West is worried about the handling of the protest movement by the Tehran regime. The protest movement is against inflation and rising prices but this movement has spiraled into demands for the end of the rule of the present government of the Ayatollahs. This movement is also being encouraged from the West such as the assurance of Donald Trump to the protesters that help is on the way. Donald Trump and Netanyahu are both hoping for a regime change in Tehran just after the happenings in Venezuela and the subsequent threats to Columbia and Cuba and the intention to grab Greenland from Denmark. USA and Israel are already guilty of violating international law by destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities and it is therefore hard to discount the possibility that they will strike again and go into foisting on Iranians a regime that will be at the beck and call of those who could smash the regime of the Ayatollahs. We cannot deny the fact that Iran has been misgoverned and misruled by the Islamic clerics since 1979 and this harsh misrule must be condemned because civil democratic behaviour has not been demonstrated by the ruling clique. Women have been mistreated and denied basic rights, human rights have been trampled underfoot for decades, dissent has been cruelly si-lenced and political prisoners have been languishing in jails since decades. The regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has never allowed the opening of a liberal society in Iran and now this regime has to move fast and undo some of their harsh policies. Shooting protesters does not help, especially when every instance of firing into the crowds becomes ammunition for foreign powers and their agents to deepen and heighten a conflagration burning up a country. —The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.