Islamabad’s nights are losing their chill as city’s winter warms up

2026-02-14 - 04:06

ISLAMABAD: Winter in Islamabad, which runs from December through February, transforms the city into a serene landscape of quiet, scenic streets and chilly winds. While the capital enjoys plenty of sunny afternoons, night temperatures frequently drop to between 1°C and 4°C. On rare occasions, a strong cold wave will even leave a delicate dusting of snow atop the Margalla Hills, drawing crowds to catch a glimpse of white-capped peaks. Over the years, however, winter in the capital has become progressively shorter and warmer due to a combination of global warming and human-induced factors. Weather data from the Pakistan Meteorological Department between 1981 and 2025 shows a noteworthy shift in Islamabad’s climate profile. Clouds hang over Islamabad following the first winter rain in 2019. — White Star According to an analysis of mean maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures during December and January, the warming trend is specifically asymmetric. While the overall climate is warming, minimum (nighttime) temperatures are increasing at a much faster rate than maximum (daytime) temperatures. This chart tracks 45 years of December weather in Islamabad, showing a steady climb in daytime maximums (TX) contrasted against the high volatility of nighttime minimums (TN). The data highlights how modern Decembers are increasingly defined by warmer afternoons. — Graph created using data from Pakistan Meteorological Department As the coldest month of the year, January’s data reveals a steady upward trend in daytime temperatures. While nights remain cold, the frequency of extreme “deep freeze” events has shifted, contributing to the overall sensation of a shorter, milder winter core. — Graph created using data from Pakistan Meteorological Department This combined seasonal average shows the “Asymmetric Warming” phenomenon. The widening gap between the rising red line (daytime highs) and the fluctuating blue line (nighttime lows) visualises how the fundamental character of Islamabad’s winter is changing over time. — Graph created using data from Pakistan Meteorological Department Danish Baig, the head of Meteorology at WeatherWalay — an Islamabad-based private weather company — described this pattern as widely recognised in climate science as “a strong indicator of anthropogenic climate change”. “[Such a weather pattern] suggests a transition towards a more thermally moderated winter climate regime,” he said. Dawn obtained the dataset from the Met department and shared it with Baig for analysis. Islamabad’s Faisal Mosque. — Adnan Khalid / Pixabay Baig’s assessment has been supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 6th report (AR6), in which the leading scientific body noted that the “frequency and intensity of hot extremes (including heatwaves) have increased, and those of cold extremes have decreased on the global scale since 1950 (virtually certain). This also applies at the regional scale, with more than 80 per cent of AR6 reference regions showing similar changes.” Human-induced greenhouse gas forcing is the main driver of the observed changes in hot and cold extremes, the IPCC confirmed. It may be noted that the global temperature in