Less rain, higher temperatures likely in Pakistan during March 2026

2026-03-06 - 09:23

Near to slightly below-normal rain and above-normal temperatures are predicted in Pakistan during March 2026. Synoptic Situation: According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), currently in a neutral phase, is expected to remain in the same phase for the forecast month. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and is expected to persist in the same phase during the forecast month. Monthly Rain Outlook: A general tendency for near- to slightly below- normal rainfall is anticipated across most parts of Pakistan, with the most pronounced negative anomalies concentrated over northern regions. Relative suppression of spring precipitation is expected in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northern Punjab and parts of western Balochistan. Near-normal rainfall is anticipated over the remaining parts of the country, including southern Punjab, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northeastern Balochistan, and most areas of Sindh. Monthly Temperature Outlook: Mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide, with maximum departure over Gilgit Baltistan, Kashmir and northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions is particularly strong over northern regions, including Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as well as some parts of southern Pakistan, particularly northeastern Sindh. Impacts: Near- to slightly below-normal rainfall will provide stable but limited moisture availability for Rabi crops. Due to the above normal temperature, the Rabi crops, including wheat and barley, may acquire early maturity. Near- to slightly below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperature are likely to support post-harvest drying and storage of rice, minimising losses from residual moisture. The onset of the pollen season is anticipated to occur in the first week of March due to rising temperatures and reduced moisture in major cities (e.g. Islamabad/Rawalpindi and Lahore). This may result in respiratory problems in sensitive groups, particularly children and the elderly. Above-normal temperatures, particularly over the southern region, are unlikely to increase vector-borne disease risk, as prevailing winter conditions remain unfavourable for mosquito activity across Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan. Minimal fog is expected in the Punjab plains, northern Sindh, and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa due to drier-than-normal conditions and warmer nights. Spatial temperature gradient may cause strong winds, dust storms, and hailstorms, potentially reducing visibility, damaging crops, and affecting infrastructure. Above-normal temperatures could increase the potential for early heat spikes and heatwave conditions. Pollen spread begins in Islamabad with onset of Spring