Middle east: Renewed military confrontation

2026-03-02 - 22:14

President Donald Trump’s policies and their geopolitical fallout have sent shockwaves throughout the world, shaking up the international order, shifting economic, political and security dynamics and driving the Middle East into renewed military confrontation, culminating in the launch of Operation Epic Furyon February 28, 2026. The US has been increasing its military deployments and articulated the red line: an Iranian nuclear program. He signalled that the US forces must strike Iran if Tehran fails to satisfy its concerns on uranium enrichment. Tehran negotiators expressed preparedness to make necessary concessions on nuclear enrichment, including shipping out its 60% enriched uranium. However, they insisted on the “right to enrich” for civilian nuclear activities under the IAEA safeguards. Trump desires regime change in the country and rolling back Iran’s ballistic missile program—a threat to regional stability. For Iran, the missiles were the last credible pillar of deterrence. Therefore, it refused to discuss any matters apart from the nuclear agreement and sanctions relief. The late Khamenei was not willing to capitulate on Iran’s missile program. He believed that it was riskier to dismantle its missile capabilities than suffer a military strike. Despite the differences on the ballistic missiles program and right to enrich, Trump kept the door open for a deal if Iran was prepared to meet his demands. The general perception was that Trump was trying to force a deal by threatening war. It is a common practice among militarily advantageous states to employ military pressure to gain diplomatic leverage. The sudden US and Israel strikes on Iran were shocking not only for the Iranians but also surprising for the entire international community. The attacks were launched when there was a breakthrough in the negotiations, not a breakdown. It exposed Trump’s duplicity, i.e., he was pretending to negotiate, but actually preparing for surprise decapitating strikes. Moreover, he disregarded domestic and international law in warfare. The US and Israel attacks are impromptu military aggression at a time when everyone was optimistic about the dialogue’s positive outcome. It seems the dialogue was used to relax the security of the Supreme Leader for decapitation. The decapitation of Khamenei increases the vulnerabilities of the US partners in the Middle East. Nevertheless, Operation Epic Fury once again reminds the international community that the rules-based order is not fading but wrecked. Therefore, “the strong can do what they can and the weak must suffer what they must.” The US and Israeli strikes led to Iran’s retaliation. The latter had already declared that in a war with the former, it would unleash a regional war on the US and its partners and Israel. The US Gulf allies were afraid of Iran’s missile strikes on the US bases located on their territories. The UAE and Saudi Arabia had publicly said that the US would not use their airspace for attacks. However, while retaliating, Iran struck the US bases located in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi justified these attacks by stating, “I was in contact with my colleagues in the Persian Gulf and explained to them that we have no intention of attacking them. We are targeting American bases in an act of self-defence. We cannot simply sit and watch as we are being attacked and not respond, just because those bases are located in a friendly neighbouring country.” The war in the Middle East multiplies Pakistan’s challenges. It has been in a state of war with Afghanistan. Another war in its neighborhood has severely impacted its choices to combat the menace of cross-border terrorism. Islamabad wants stability in Iran and support for the dialogue process, as reflected in the Foreign Office statement issued on February 28, 2026. “Pakistan regrets the breakdown of talks and outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East. Pakistan condemns the unwarranted attacks against the Islamic Republic of Iran. These attacks come at a time when diplomatic efforts were underway to reach a peaceful and negotiated solution.” Pakistan condemned Iran’s attacks on the neighboring Muslim Gulf states. Prime Minister Shehbaz stated, “Pakistan stands in full solidarity with Saudi Arabia and our brotherly Gulf countries in this perilous time. We remain ready to play a constructive role for peace and pray that the blessings of Ramadan bring calm and stability to our region.” To conclude, it’s too early to anticipate the outcome of the renewed military confrontation in the Middle East. Hypothetically speaking, the decisive victory against Iran may serve Trump and Netanyahu’s domestic and regional objectives for a short time, but the Middle East’s peace and stability are in jeopardy for the long term. Besides, the nations, including China and Europe, that depend on the Middle Eastern oil supplies will encounter energy crises. Thus, the entire world will suffer from the heat of renewed confrontation in the Middle East. —The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. (jaspal_99@hotmail.com)