Normal rain, higher temperatures likely in Pakistan in February 2026

2026-02-04 - 08:46

Near-normal rains and above-normal temperatures are expected in Pakistan during February 2026. Synoptic Situation: According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), currently in a marginally negative phase, is expected to shift to a neutral phase and remain in the same phase for the forecast month. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and is expected to persist in the same phase during the forecast month. Monthly Rain Outlook: Near to slightly above-normal rainfall is anticipated across most parts of Pakistan, with the most pronounced positive anomalies concentrated over northern regions, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and northern Punjab. In contrast, southern Pakistan, particularly Sindh, Balochistan and southern Punjab, shows near-normal rainfall signals. Overall, the outlook suggests no widespread extreme anomalies, with wetter conditions in the northern regions and slightly drier conditions in the southern regions as per the normal rainfall records in southeastern Pakistan. However, localised above-normal precipitation may occur over the mountainous areas due to orographic influences. Monthly Temperature Outlook: Mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide, with maximum departure over Gilgit Baltistan and Kashmir. The likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions is particularly stronger over northern regions, including Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as well as some parts of southern Pakistan, particularly northeastern Sindh. Impacts: Rabi crops in central and some northern parts of Pakistan are likely to benefit from normal to slightly above-normal rainfall, supporting healthy growth, particularly in rain-fed areas. While southern regions, including Sindh, southern Punjab, and southeastern Balochistan, may face persistent soil moisture stress due to near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures, potentially limit crop development and reduce potential yields. Overall, wetter conditions in the north favour crop growth, while southern regions face moderate moisture constraints. Dry conditions with slightly above-normal temperatures will favour post-harvest handling and storage of rice, reducing losses from residual moisture or delayed drying. Above-normal temperatures, particularly over southern regions, are unlikely to increase vector-borne disease risk, as prevailing winter conditions remain unfavourable for mosquito activity across Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan. Slightly wetter conditions in northern and northwestern Pakistan may aid local water availability, but limited rainfall in southern regions could keep local water resources low, requiring continued monitoring and contingency planning. Cooler nights combined with near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall in northern and central regions may still favour fog formation, particularly in Punjab and adjoining northern Sindh. Reduced visibility could disrupt highway travel and cause delays at major roads and airports, especially during late-night and early morning hours. A limited amount of rainfall in the southern plains may reduce air quality, increase the risk of smog formation, and cause respiratory health issues among sensitive groups, particularly children, the elderly, and those with chronic lung conditions, while wetter northern regions may experience lower smog risk. Expected snowfall episodes over the northern and western regions may increase the risk of avalanches, while accompanying rainfall could trigger flash flooding in low-lying and downstream areas. In addition, hailstorm events are likely in parts of northern Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during weather spells. Normal rain, higher temperatures likely in Pakistan during January 2026