Offshore energy and security in the Arabian Sea

2026-02-12 - 23:56

Zaeem Shabbir, Usman Zafar PAKISTAN’S energy sector is re-emerging nationally and internationally after years of shortages and uncertainty. Rapid growth of domestically generated solar power, expected to reach 19% of total electricity generation by June 2026, is significant. Yet, Pakistan’s offshore potential is far greater. The award of 23 offshore oil and gas exploration blocks in the Arabian Sea to four consortiums led by local energy companies marks a milestone, positioning offshore exploration as a potential game-changer for the hydrocarbon sector. This opportunity, however, raises questions about Pakistan’s preparedness to manage the environmental, social and security risks as exploration moves from contracts to operations. Pakistan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and Continental Shelf cover roughly 290,000 sq km, over a third of the country’s land area. The largely unexplored seabed has diverse geological zones, ridge-like structures and adjacent abyssal plains, which affect both exploration feasibility and environmental concerns. The Murray Ridge, extending southwest from the Makran coast, is tectonically active, formed by interactions between the Arabian and Indian plates and holds scientific interest and hydrocarbon potential. To the east, the Indus Offshore Basin remains underexplored despite geological similarities with hydrocarbon-rich regions across the Arabian Sea. Initial exploration began in 1963 with three wells drilled in the shallow waters of the Indus Delta at Dhabo, Patiani and Korangi Creeks. The recent awards have attracted investment, technology and employment, reflecting a broader aim of reducing reliance on imported energy, strengthening supply resilience and easing foreign exchange pressures. However, offshore exploration is not only a techno-economic enterprise; it also entails environmental and security challenges requiring strong governance. These challenges directly affect Pakistan’s 1,000+ km coastline, where coastal communities depend on the sea. Developing offshore energy must, therefore, be approached through the lens of human and environmental security, sustainability and governance, especially regarding coastal populations. Environmental risks are foremost. Oil spills, even during exploratory drilling, pose severe threats to marine ecosystems and livelihoods. Accidental discharges, blowouts or operational spills could disrupt fisheries, damage mangroves and harm coral communities, undermining economic activity in biologically rich waters. Key details on safeguards, spill response and emergency protocols may not be fully transparent, but any incident could have major consequences. Pakistan recently conducted its oil spill and pollution response exercise, BARRACUDA XIII, which revealed partial Tier-II preparedness, highlighting the need to expand capacity for larger, more complex pollution events. Social dimensions are equally critical. Lack of trust or grievances from coastal communities can lead to conflict, as seen in other resource-rich regions such as Nigeria. Communities in Sindh and Balochistan, reliant on marine resources, have a legitimate stake in offshore activities but are rarely consulted on safeguards, emergency planning or benefit-sharing. Proactive engagement and transparency are essential to ensure offshore ventures are socially sustainable, treating communities as stakeholders rather than afterthoughts. The government has both a responsibility and opportunity to involve local actors and demonstrate that development will not come at the cost of environmental or social harm. Offshore energy infrastructure also introduces significant physical security requirements. Pakistan’s EEZ does not have a uniform threat profile. The eastern zone, near India, faces traditional, state-centric threats requiring conventional security measures. The western zone faces non-traditional threats from non-state actors, including sabotage, terrorism and maritime crimes, requiring a broader security strategy. Offshore energy development has transformative potential. Exploration success could strengthen energy resilience, reduce import dependence, attract investment, create employment and promote technological development, supporting long-term growth. Yet, these benefits come with responsibility. Failure to address environmental hazards, social concerns or security challenges could convert a potential economic boon into a liability. A multi-pronged approach is needed to maximize benefits and mitigate risks. Strengthening environmental safeguards and expanding national oil spill response capacity must be prioritized. Coastal communities should be actively engaged with clear communication, transparency and benefit-sharing. Security measures should align with regional threat profiles, balancing conventional and comprehensive approaches. Coordinated action among government agencies, energy companies and local stakeholders is critical to harmonize economic, environmental and social objectives. Offshore energy exploration in the Arabian Sea presents a historic opportunity for Pakistan. It can transform the energy sector, enhance resilience and reduce import dependence. Yet, the promise of offshore hydrocarbons carries responsibilities: environmental protection, social inclusion and tailored security preparedness. Timely, proactive and coordinated measures today are essential to ensure this opportunity fosters sustainable development rather than becoming a long-term liability. Pakistan’s ability to balance economic gains with environmental and social stewardship will define the future trajectory of its offshore energy sector and broader energy security. —The writers are contributing columnist.