Rising temperatures may trigger glacier melt, increase GLOF risk in northern Pakistan: PMD

2026-02-23 - 10:13

ISLAMABAD – Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Monday warned that rising temperatures could accelerate glacier melt and increase Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) risk in Northern Pakistan. The rainfall and snowfall in northern Pakistan remained below normal during the winter season, consistent with the seasonal forecast issued by PMD, it said in a press release on Monday. Reduced precipitation and persistent clear-sky conditions have resulted in stable atmospheric patterns and significantly elevated temperatures across Gilgit-Baltistan during the first two decades (1–22 February) of February 2026. Daytime (maximum) temperatures were recorded3–5°C above normal, while nighttime (minimum) temperaturesremained1–3.5°C above the 1981–2010 climatological average. The highest warming has been observed in Gilgit and Bunji, while Chilas and Bunji have shown notable increases in minimum temperatures, reducing overnight refreezing. The sustained above normal temperatures are accelerating snow and glacier melt, particularly at mid to lower altitudes. Reduced nighttime cooling further enhances meltwater runoff into glacial lakes. Rapid melting increases water accumulation in both moraine and glacier dammed lakes, raising the likelihood of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) events in downstream valleys. The PMD’s outlook for February–April 2026 indicates a high probability of above-normal temperatures over northern Pakistan, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir. If this warming trend persists, the risk of glacier melt acceleration and potential GLOF occurrences may increase in vulnerable areas such as Gilgit, Ghizar, Hunza, Bunji, Chilas and Astore. PMD continues to closely monitor temperature trends, glacier melt conditions, and hydrometeorological parameters and will issue timely advisories to relevant authorities and communities.