Securing CPEC Through Inclusion and Stability

2026-02-03 - 22:26

Pakistan stands at a defining moment where economic ambition and internal stability are tightly bound together. Nowhere is this more evident than in Balochistan, where the future of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will be decided not only by roads and ports but by public trust and inclusion. The recent resurgence of insurgent violence in early 2026, including coordinated attacks and the abduction of a senior district official attributed to the Baloch Liberation Army, should not be viewed as isolated security incidents. These actions represent a direct challenge to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor at a time when Pakistan is attempting to move the project into its next and most demanding phase. This phase focuses on industrialisation, logistics and value added economic activity rather than physical construction alone. The initial stage of CPEC was intentionally focused on visible infrastructure such as highways, power projects and port development. These projects were easier to execute and easier to defend politically. The next stage is more complex. Industrial zones and logistics networks depend on stable administration, safe movement of people and goods and confidence that projects can operate without constant disruption. Factories do not function in uncertainty. Investment decisions are delayed or abandoned when risk becomes unpredictable. This is why disruptions to key routes feeding Gwadar and other corridor assets carry consequences beyond their immediate impact. A port or highway does not become strategic merely because it exists. It becomes strategic when it functions reliably every day. When connectivity is reduced to heavily guarded movement rather than predictable commercial flow, the economic promise of the corridor weakens. Pakistan is justified in treating corridor security as a matter of national priority. A military administered security framework for strategic routes, protected convoys and dedicated oversight for key assets is necessary in the short term. However, security alone cannot deliver long- term stability. It can contain threats but it cannot generate legitimacy. In Balochistan, legitimacy is the decisive factor that will determine whether CPEC evolves into a sustainable economic platform or remains a permanently securitized project. The success of CPEC in Balochistan is inseparable from the relationship between the state and the people of the province. If industrialisation is perceived as extractive, benefiting distant centres while local communities remain marginalized, the project will face continuous resistance. This resistance increases security costs and fuels narratives used by anti-state elements to justify violence. If, however, local communities see clear benefits and meaningful participation, the environment changes. Public support becomes a stabilizing force. This is where policy choices matter more than rhetoric. The most effective way to weaken militant recruitment is not through slogans but through visible economic inclusion. Groups that carry out such attacks rely on frustration and exclusion. Their message is that development occurs without local benefit. That message loses credibility when people experience direct improvement in their daily lives. Revenue sharing, therefore, becomes a strategic tool rather than a fiscal debate. A fixed and legally guaranteed share of mining and port related revenues should flow directly to the districts of origin. This allocation must be automatic, transparent and publicly auditable. When communities can see new schools, functioning health units, clean water systems and vocational training centres funded by corridor activity, the appeal of violence diminishes. Development becomes tangible rather than abstract. Employment is equally important. Industrial growth that does not integrate local labour risks deepening alienation. CPEC related industries must institutionalize local hiring, technical apprenticeships and skills training aligned with corridor needs. When young people see realistic career paths linked to industrialisation, they are less vulnerable to recruitment by extremist groups. At the same time, Pakistan should frame CPEC as an expanding economic platform rather than an exclusive partnership. The objective is not to replace Chinese investment but to complement it by including additional investors alongside Chinese partners. A broader investor base strengthens resilience, improves standards and reinforces confidence in the corridor. This approach benefits all stakeholders including China. However, attracting additional investors requires more than security assurances. It requires governance credibility. Investors evaluate whether administrative systems function beyond the capital, whether officials can operate safely in the field and whether local grievances are addressed through policy rather than force. These considerations matter equally to Chinese partners and to any new participants. Representation is, therefore, a critical missing element that deserves greater emphasis. Balochistan cannot be expected to support rapid industrialisation if its people feel excluded from decision making. Credible representatives from the province, including elected leaders, local professionals, youth and business voices, must be meaningfully included at the highest forums shaping CPEC related policies. Participation fosters ownership. Ownership reduces resistance. This inclusion is not symbolic. It is practical risk management. When concerns about land use, employment, displacement and resource sharing are addressed early, the space for misinformation and militant exploitation shrinks. When those concerns are ignored, the resulting vacuum is quickly filled by hostile narratives. The state must also clearly distinguish between peaceful dissent and violent separatism. Demands for fairness and inclusion are part of democratic governance and should not be conflated with militancy. Violent groups thrive when peaceful channels appear closed. Expanding legitimate channels of participation isolates violent actors and reduces their influence. CPEC-II will not succeed through security measures alone. Nor will it fail because of one wave of attacks. Its success will depend on whether Pakistan can balance enforcement with legitimacy, protection with participation and investment with inclusion. If the people of Balochistan come to see industrialisation as a pathway to dignity and opportunity rather than a threat to their identity and resources, the corridor will not require constant defence. It will be defended by public support. That outcome represents the strongest and most sustainable security strategy Pakistan can pursue for its most ambitious economic vision. The author is a Pakistan-based writer with an interest in CPEC, governance reform and security linked development.