Strait of Hormuz and Pakistan’s hidden agricultural risk

2026-03-26 - 01:30

Mekaeel Sadiq Gondal As global attention gravitates toward the intensifying energy crisis due to Iran-US conflict, an equally urgent reality remains undetected – the deep and undeniable connection between conflict and food security. Since birth of modern petroleum in Titusville, Pennsylvania, U.S. in 1859 it remained circulatory fluid of modern civilization, powering everything from a motorcycle to a jet flying across continents. Natural gas has a different story, but no less important. It powers the world behind the scenes. Industries burn it to keep their operations running. And perhaps most critically, it’s the key ingredient in producing urea, the fertilizer that farmers depend on to grow the food that ends up on all of our plates. Countries like Pakistan, where agriculture sector acts as primary stabilizer contributing 23.5% to the GDP, serve over 37% of labour force and act as an engine of the external sector, with agriculture commodities and textile derivates contributing approximately60%oftotalexportearnings,fluctuationof1%incropyieldcantriggeranational food security crisis. Pakistan’s fertilizer consumption is heavily skewed towards nitrogen, with urea accounting for approximately 70–75% of total product off take, translating to roughly 6.2 to 7 million tons annually. Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) follows as the primary phosphatic fertilizer, with a 15–20% share of total consumption, often experiencing supply gaps that require imports. The remaining market consists of special nutrients, including Nitro-Phos (NP), Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) and Potash products (Muriate of Potash and Sulfate of Potash). While Pakistan produces its own urea using domestic gas, its Phosphorus (DAP) supply is trapped in a global maritime bottleneck. Pakistan relies on imports for over60% of its DAP needs, either as finished productoras raw Phosphoric Acid. Much of this finished DAP originates from Gulf producers like Saudi Arabia, whose ships must navigate the Strait of Hormuz to reach Karachi. Simultaneously, the raw acid imported from Morocco must traverse the increasingly volatile Red Sea and Arabian Sea corridors. This maritime trap means that any regional conflict triggers immediate spikes in insurance premiums and freight costs, directly strangling the phosphorus supply and leaving the Pakistani harvest and the broader economy vulnerable to a crisis it cannot control from the shore. In other words, Pakistan’s agricultural shield is built on Nitrogen (urea), but itsAchilles’ heel is Phosphorus (DAP). This vulnerability potentially threatens the nation’s agricultural sustainability, due to volatile maritime bottleneck beyond its control. Pakistan’s totalgas supply averages between 3,800 and 4,100 million cubic feet per day composed mix of domestic production and imports. About three-quarters (76%) of gas comes from domestic sources, while the remaining 24% is imported in the form of Re-Liquefied Natural Gas(RLNG).This combination forms the back bone of the country’s energy system and is distributed across sectors to balance both social needs and economic priorities. Households take the largest share, around 38%, reflecting the government’s focus on domestic energy security. Industry receives about 19%, while fertilizer plants consume roughly 17%, safeguarded by dedicated local supply to keep urea prices stable. Power generation accounts for another14%, and the remaining 12% goes to commercial users and transport. Since energy and industry sectors are the primary consumers of RLNG, any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz creates immediate energy inflation that riples in to agriculture sector and compounds its effect due to supply chain disruption of DAP. High RLNG prices increase the electricity Costs for running tube wells and the transport costs for moving fertilizers from Port Qasim to the Punjab heartland. These effects ultimately translate to consumers, resulting in increased price of wheat and staple foods. The events of 2026 underline a crucial reality: food security is inseparable from energy security and geopolitics. This is most evident in Pakistan as witnessed through the widening price chasm between subsidized, indigenous urea(down6.5%) and import- dependent DAP(up20.8%), which is distorting Pakistan’s agricultural landscape. As the maritime trap spikes phosphorus costs, farmers on razor-thin margins may pivot toward cheaper, locally shielded nitrogen.This is more than a budgetary shift–it is a fundamental threat to the sustainability of the Indus Basin. Over-applying urea to compensate for missing DAP depletes thes oil of essential minerals, degrading fertility and cropquality in a dangerous feedback loop. As soil health fails, future harvests become even more vulnerable to the very global supply shocks the country seeks to avoid. To break this cycle,Pakistan must transition from import dependence to nutrient sovereignty. While the 76% indigenous gas baseline successfully shields nitrogen, the phosphorus Achillesheel remains exposed to distant conflicts. Reducing dependence on vulnerable supply routes is essential for Pakistan’s long-term stability. This requires a dual-track strategy: accelerating Thar Coal gasification for localized fertilizer production and diversifying trade routes to bypass volatile maritime chokepoints. Until Pakistan decouples its phosphorus supply from the watersof the Gulf and the Red Sea, its food security remains a hostage to geopolitics. The stability of the next harvest now depends lesson the weather in Punjab and more on the nation’s ability to build a domestic bridge over the world’s most dangerous waters.