The results of the war so far

2026-03-04 - 22:14

AFTER the martyrdom of Grand Ayatollah Syed Ali Khamenei, what direction is the war taking? Today, tomorrow and the day after — indeed for many days to come — this question will continue to stir upheaval and people will feel helpless in answering it, even the warring parties themselves. As far as Iran is concerned, it is the affected party. The general opinion had been that after three decades of sanctions and the oppressive tactics of world powers, it had been reduced to a half-dead state. Then, in the very first blow, by martyring the Supreme Leader, it was dealt what appeared to be an irreparable loss. In the first wave of aggression, not only was Ayatollah Khamenei martyred, but the first and second tiers of political and military leadership were also wiped out. One may disagree with political leaders and state authorities, but once they are cut down in such a manner, it is not easy for any state to stand upright. Iran has done so. This is an achievement, yet calling it merely an achievement does not do justice to it — it is a great achievement. Besides Iran, if any country has endured such a tragedy, it was its neighboring state, known to the world as the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. This occurred in 1988 when the head of state and almost the entire top military leadership perished in a plane crash. Today, the world is witnessing similar confidence and resilience in Iran. In one respect, Iran’s experience carries even greater significance than Pakistan’s. In General Zia-ul-Haq’s case, no foreign power had invaded Pakistan, but in Iran’s case, a state like Israel and a dominant power like the United States are raining fire and iron upon it. In the Middle East, we have seen countries bow before internal uprisings backed or encouraged by the United States, but this is Iran standing firm before both America and Israel. Reports suggest that Iran will continue confronting the enemy for weeks or even months. It is this steadfastness that has granted Iran stature and unsettled its enemies. Why do aggressive powers appear troubled even in the early days of war? A principal reason is that this war was imposed with the expectation that within a few days Iran’s resolve would collapse and the reins of power would pass into the hands of the Shah of Iran’s son or some similar puppet. That has not happened. This is one reason for the attackers’ frustration. This, in itself, is a major immediate outcome of the war — and no minor matter. Another extraordinary dimension of this war is a different front altogether — the one over which Iran has faced criticism even from some of its sympathizers: the attacks on Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman. The affected countries lodged strong protests. Had these states retaliated, it would not have been surprising. Yet, at the time of writing, that has not occurred. Did these countries lack the capability to respond? Certainly not. They could have done so. That they chose not to is noteworthy. The common perception was that Iran had become isolated in the Middle East and that Muslim countries would not stand with it in this hour of trial. That perception did not last long. On one hand, Iran declared the episode an Israeli false-flag operation; on the other, a Mossad spy was reportedly arrested in Saudi Arabia. This appeared to lend weight to Iran’s position. Indications suggest that at this difficult juncture, most of the Arab world — with one or two exceptions — stands on what it sees as the right side of history. These are positive signs. There is no doubt that the United States and Israel have, in a sense, torn Iran apart, yet Iran’s morale and the strength of its state structure offer a ray of hope. Another possible outcome of this war may be that the very nature of the Middle East will change. We know — and if we do not, we should know — that Dubai, such a magnificent commercial and tourism hub, was built upon the corpse of Karachi. As Dubai’s wealth and power increased, Karachi kept declining. Today, if Balochistan remains restless and Gwadar struggles to take root, the reason is the same as that of Karachi. What strange justice of fate is this — that Dubai is emptying, people are turning their backs and fleeing and capital and wealth are following them. The expectation is that while Dubai may face severe trials, other Middle Eastern states may remain largely secure. The transformation unfolding in the Middle East will not be merely economic but strategic as well and it may herald another wave of change stretching from the Middle East to South Asia. As for the war, it is still going on. From the womb of this war, the world will continue to witness extraordinary developments for a long time to come. —This writer is former advisor to the President of Pakistan, author & mass media theorist. (farooq.adilbhuta@gmail,com)