Trump — the gamble failed?

2026-03-12 - 21:24

THE war has escalated and involved other regional countries. The dynamic is becoming more horrendous and disastrous. President Putin is trying to mediate between the three, but Iran rejects. Europe cannot support an endless war, said German Chancellor Merz. The endless war! Plan A has failed; Plan B is a non-starter. President Trump is demanding surrender from Iranian forces, whereas ground realities are quite different. Iran has totally rejected this and vows to continue the fight. It is the second week. This reflects desperation in Washington. The strikes on refineries and water facilities will not only create a colossal economic impact but also cause human suffering. The financial impact, both regionally and globally, is visible. Yet, President Trump, in a recent interview, stated that operations of Epic Fury are going well. His critics laughed, while supporters search for answers—they do not see an end coming. On the ground, the death of the Ayatollah has cemented national unity; the nation has become more united and radical. The Trump hypothesis—that the regime would collapse after the death of the Ayatollah Khomeini—has met its end. Infrastructure can be destroyed, but not the soul of the nation. There is total confusion in Washington after the failure of Plan A, with people fleeing Dubai and Abu Dhabi at any cost. Rebuilding trust for business and investors will take years. It is time for Pakistan to open Gwadar and Karachi duty-free for ten years, as Karachi has long been a commercial hub. Strategic experts like Jeffrey Sachs note that while US military planning has been excellent, there has been no political debate or public discussion on the aftermath of the attacks. The evacuation of Americans and Europeans from the Middle East has been poorly managed, unlike Afghanistan, where 125,000 people were evacuated successfully. As far as Israel is concerned, they have been planning for months for this attack and meticulously worked out details, but they too did not anticipate the aftermath. Their US/Israeli strategy is based on offensive doctrine, while Iran’s response is offensive defense. There has been no advisory for industry, businessmen, or tourists regarding what to expect after the attacks. In geopolitics, geography is destiny. The US game plan to destroy nuclear facilities is a ruse; the actual objective is to disrupt China’s oil logistics. The US has enjoyed supremacy for the last hundred years. China receives 75% of its supplies through this route. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts Chinese logistics, though China has alternate plans and storage. If the war continues for weeks or months, it could be disastrous. Estimated losses to Gulf States are already around $22 billion in trade and economy; this may soar to hundreds of billions. Major casualties include investor trust. Open media sources report that the US has spent almost $4–5 billion on the war with Iran in a week. US bases in the Gulf have suffered extensive damage. Trump’s rating in the USA has plummeted to the lowest, and Republicans are reportedly losing in all primaries for the midterm elections. Reports suggest under-the-table contacts between the CIA and Iran, but Iran will never agree to a ceasefire except on its terms, having blunted Plan A of the US. Contrary to US claims of unlimited ammunition supply, there are backend shortages in precision missiles. Defending cheap drones costing a few thousand dollars with multi-million-dollar missiles is considered unwise by experts. The US prepared for aggressive offensive operations expecting a surgical victory but did not plan for defensive strategies, such as countering cheap drones. Israel’s situation is reportedly worse; hence, India is being used as an alternative, with its ports already leveraged. The war between Iran and Israel has spanned almost 40 years. Past efforts to stop the carnage—such as Clinton’s deal between the Israeli PM and Yasser Arafat—were short-lived. Obama opposed war and suggested direct negotiations, successfully securing a nuclear deal with Iran, which was supposed to be the beginning of a new chapter. President Trump cancelled that deal, opening a new chapter of bloodshed. US and Israeli attacks mark the commencement of a plan for Greater Israel, stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates. There is total confusion in Washington. President Trump keeps changing political objectives—from no talks to demanding absolute surrender. The war has now become regional, involving almost 13 countries—a mini-World War III (Jeffrey). There is no scope for talks between Iran and the US. The DNA of the Iranian people, with 6,000 years of history, ensures that negotiations are only possible once the US vacates all bases in the Gulf—a distant future. The US cannot apply pressure without ground troops and is relying on proxies like the Kurds, who have refused to participate, having been betrayed twice before. Russia and China are reportedly supporting Iran with technology and intelligence. Economically, the war has already impacted Gulf States. UAE, Qatar, and Dubai warned that oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel if the war continues, strangling regional and global economies. Pakistan, which imports 70% of its oil and gas from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, will be heavily affected. Investors in the Gulf are withdrawing funds, and investor trust is shattered. The threat from Israel to Pakistan has grown, with recent India-Israel agreements signaling plans against Muslim nations and Pakistan seen as the main obstacle to Indian hegemony and Greater Israel. Afghanistan, under Taliban influence, opens two fronts, while cyber warfare escalates with the US accusing China and Russia of supporting Iran. In this context, Pakistan faces not only terrorism and cyber threats but also economic challenges, making strict financial management and internal political cohesion essential to weather the rising storm. —The author is Brigadier Retired and regularly contributes to the national press. (tariqkhalil21@gmail.com)