War Diary Day 19: Nuclear shadow deepens as energy war expands

2026-03-18 - 14:01

On the 19th day of the US-Israeli war against Iran, the conflict is being shaped by two interlocking dynamics wherein the nuclear threshold has not been crossed but is increasingly blurred, while the fighting has spread across multiple theatres. Together, these trends reinforce each other, with each escalation raising the nuclear risk even as the grinding nature of the war makes de-escalation harder. The latest escalation underscores this shift. A strike on the Bushehr nuclear power facility, though limited in immediate damage, has pushed the conflict into a more dangerous phase. The absence of a radiological incident has not diminished the significance of the event. It has instead introduced a new risk regarding the possibility of reciprocal targeting of nuclear-linked infrastructure. Similarly, Trump’s plan for seizing enriched uranium stockpiles carries extreme escalation risks. While any such move would almost certainly trigger Iranian retaliation, there are risks with even attempting to seize those stockpiles because of potential radiological hazards and the operation’s risky mechanics. Therefore, what was earlier implicit has now moved closer to operational consideration. A fire burns outside the grounds of the US Embassy headquarters in Baghdad’s fortified “Green Zone”, in Iraq on on March 17, following a drone and rocket attack. — AFP In parallel, the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the central theatre of contestation. Overnight strikes by US forces using heavy bunker buster munitions against Iranian coastal missile positions point to a strategy to weaken Tehran’s ability to control access to the waterway. Additionally, the incoming deployment of the USS Tripoli, with its embarked Marine force, adds to indications that Washington is preparing for more direct options, including potential ground operations against Iranian islands, though the effectiveness of such a strategy remains uncertain. Any attempt to seize key nodes such as Kharg Island or the Tunb islands would carry significant operational risks, even as the chances of neutralising Iran’s wider asymmetric capabilities remain low. Instead, it could trigger broader attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. Currently, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is selective rather than absolute, allowing limited passage for states not involved in the conflict while restricting traffic linked to the US-Israel coalition. This calibrated approach has allowed Tehran to sustain economic pressure without fully closing the channel. The US is said to be even allowing Iranian vessels to carry oil so as to reduce pressure on the oil market due to the crisis. Therefore, further escalation in the Strait would increase the crisis instead of resolving it. An Indian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carrier, Shivalik, arrives at Mundra Port , in Gujarat, India, via the Strait of Hormuz on March 16, amid the US-Israel conflict. — Reuters The Israeli strike on multiple facilities in Iran’s South Pars gas field, targeting for the first time critical gas processing infrastructure that underpins Iran’s economy, is yet another deliberate expansion of the conflict in the energy domain. The attack, reportedly coordinated with and approved by Washington, indicates a shift in US-Israeli calculus, with Iran’s broader energy sector now treated as a legitimate theatre of operations. This move is likely to invite a symmetric response, with Iranian retaliation expected against gas and LNG infrastructure across the Gulf, from Saudi to Qatari facilities. The wider contest involving hydrocarbon lifelines highlights an impending, much graver energy crisis. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s latest remarks reflect Tehran’s positioning on the issue of navigation through Hormuz. He has framed any potential end to the conflict not in terms of a ceasefire, but a comprehensive settlement that addresses all active fronts, including Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Central to this vision is a new framework governing passage through the Strait of Hormuz. His vision for