War Diary Day 21: Muted Nowruz, Eid in Iran

2026-03-20 - 18:20

On the twenty-first day of the US-Israeli war on Iran, a sombre Nowruz and Eidul Fitr eve set the domestic mood in Iran, as fresh military developments and a shifting coalition posture pointed to an imminent widening of the war. Across Iran, the Persian New Year arrived without usual festivities associated with it. Celebrations were scaled down, with war, blackouts and economic strain shaping public sentiment. Markets remained open but subdued, and even among diaspora communities, observances lacked the usual fervour. ‘Rare moral boost’ Against this backdrop, a reported Iranian air defence success provided a rare morale boost. Iranian systems are said to have damaged a US F-35 during a combat mission, forcing it to make an emergency landing at Al-Dhafra Airbase in the United Arab Emirates. While the operational impact appears limited, the symbolic value of hitting a stealth fifth-generation aircraft would be considerable. The Iranian media is projecting it as evidence that advanced US platforms can be challenged. Under stressful situations, such narratives serve to reinforce resilience. Meanwhile, an Israeli reservist working for the Iron Dome air defence system was arrested on allegations of spying for Iran. The individual is reported to have maintained covert contact with Iranian handlers over an extended period and to have shared sensitive operational details in return for payment. While the full extent of the breach remains unclear, the case has been described by investigators as among the more serious incidents of its kind, underscoring the increasing role of intelligence operations alongside the ongoing military confrontation. Evolving military balance and a diplomatic shift The military balance, however, has continued to evolve. The imminent arrival of the USS Tripoli and USS Boxer, with their embarked Marine forces, is expected to boost US capabilities in the region, thereby expanding Washington’s options in the Gulf, including potential operations linked to securing maritime routes or seizing strategic islands. This would increase the risk of direct confrontation in the littoral space. At the same time, a notable diplomatic shift has emerged. Several Western and allied countries, after initially expressing reluctance, have signalled their willingness to support efforts aimed at ensuring maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. While details remain unclear, the move suggests a gradual hardening of positions after weeks of hesitation. For Washington, this provides some support to its effort to internationalise the issue, though questions remain about the scale and sustainability of such involvement. Diverging war aims Despite this, divergences in war aims are becoming more visible. The US focus remains on reopening the Strait and containing the conflict, whereas Israeli objectives appear broader, with indications that long-term strategic change in Iran remains part of its calculus. This gap is complicating coordination and adds another layer of uncertainty to the trajectory of the war. On the ground, Iran continues to rely on a strategy of endurance and horizontal escalation. Pressure is being maintained through missile and drone operations, as well as proxy activity across multiple fronts. Developments in Lebanon and Iraq indicate that these fronts remain active, reinforcing the pattern of distributed pressure that has defined the conflict in recent days. The economic dimension is also becoming more pronounced. Disruptions linked to energy flows, supply chains and insurance costs are beginning to accumulate, with potential knock-on effects extending beyond the region. These pressures are likely to intensify if the conflict continues along its current trajectory, particularly if energy infrastructure and maritime routes remain contested. The situation at the end of Day 21 reinforced the assessment that the conflict was steadily expanding in scope while becoming harder to control. The combination of domestic strain in Iran, incremental coalition building on the US side, and continued military pressure across multiple theatres suggests that the coming days, particularly around the Nowruz period, could prove decisive in determining whether the war stabilises or moves into a more dangerous phase. Header image: An Iranian flag flutters as a digger arrives to help remove the debris from destroyed buildings following a military strike on the Iranian capital Tehran on March 15, 2026. — AFP/ File