War Diary Day 25: Pause holds but conflict’s underlying dynamics point to widening of scope

2026-03-24 - 18:31

On the 25th day of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the conflict’s underlying dynamics pointed to a continued widening of scope, with President Donald Trump’s five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure offering only limited respite and doing little to alter the broader trajectory. Over the past 24 hours, Israeli strikes continued against Iranian energy and military targets, including gas management facilities in Isfahan, pipeline-linked infrastructure in Khorramshahr, and military sites. Additionally, US and Israeli strikes were reported in Tehran and other urban areas, which indicates a sustained pressure by the US-Israel alliance on Iran’s both strategic and symbolic nodes. Iran responded with a calibrated but geographically expanding pattern of retaliation. As missile and drone strikes targeted US positions across the Gulf, including installations linked to air and naval operations, fire continued to be directed toward Israeli targets. A notable development was the strike on Kuwait’s power transmission network, which caused widespread blackouts. Despite these tactical moves by both sides, the military balance, however, remained one of managed escalation. On the ground, fire rates from Iran have moderated, but the available launch capacity has largely remained intact because of a deliberate conservation of assets. On the other side, the scale of US and Israeli targeting has expanded, with claims of thousands of strikes since the start of the campaign and significant degradation of Iranian naval capabilities. In Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes on infrastructure in the south, including bridges and supply routes, continued, while Hezbollah maintained pressure through rocket fire and tactical denial of Israeli ground movement. That front too has stabilised into an attritional pattern, with neither side achieving decisive gains. In Iraq, US and allied forces completed the evacuation of a key installation in Baghdad following a temporary ceasefire with local armed groups. Shifting posture of US forces At the operational level, the US forces’ posture is undergoing a visible transition. The accelerated deployment of Marine expeditionary units, sustained strategic airlift into regional bases, and reports that airborne and special operations forces are being positioned point to preparations for a potential next phase of escalation. Reported options under consideration by the US-Israel alliance include limited ground or littoral operations aimed at securing maritime routes, or targeting Iranian coastal infrastructure. Such moves, however, carry a high risk of triggering a broader escalation, especially because they would involve nodes such as Kharg Island or other positions linked to Hormuz control. Configuration of power in Iran Inside Iran, the internal configuration of power is shifting further toward the security establishment. The consolidation of authority within the Revolutionary Guards, reinforced by key appointments in the national security structure, especially the naming of former Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Bagher Zolghadr as Ali Larijani’s successor at Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, reinforces the impression that a tightening of decision-making is underway at a time of external pressure. Parallel to this, the public negotiating posture has hardened, with Tehran rejecting claims of engagement and reiterating demands that any dialogue should include security guarantees, sanctions relief, reparations and recognition of its role in regulating passage through the Strait of Hormuz and its right to enrichment. Hormuz — the central lever The Strait itself has continued to be the central lever in the conflict. While not formally closed, it is effectively constrained by a combination of selective access, elevated insurance costs and implicit coercion. Iran continues to allow limited passage under its own terms while signalling that any escalation, particularly against its energy or power infrastructure, would trigger broader disruption, including potential denial of the waterway. Diplomatically, Trump’s pause has created a narrow window for indirect engagement through regional intermediaries even though the absence of any visible convergence between the two sides has made the pause look less a breakthrough and more a tactical adjustment. Regional signalling is becoming sharper. Gulf states are gradually shifting toward a more assertive posture, with warnings that further targeting could prompt direct responses. At the same time, differences within the broader coalition, particularly regarding the scale and end goals of the campaign, have been evident. The economic dimension is now the dominant pressure point. Oil markets continue to show extreme volatility, reacting sharply to both military developments and political messaging. While the focus has been mostly on oil, disruptions have spread across supply chains, including fertilisers, LNG and industrial inputs. The situation at the end of Day 25 tells us that while some effort may be under way to tactically contain the war, one cannot ignore that it is expanding structurally. The pause may delay one axis of escalation, but on the whole, continuation of strikes, regional spillover and economic disruption are pushing the conflict toward a phase where control becomes harder to maintain, and the risks of a wider confrontation continue to rise. Header image: Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the eastern outskirts of the southern Lebanese coastal city of Tyre on March 24, 2026. — AFP